Ivan Sichen, an expert of the Independent Analytical Center for Geopolitical Studies “Borysfen Intel”, for Gazeta.ua
The Russian Federation is preparing to start the third stage of a large-scale war, despite the fact that the previous two failed. The Kremlin may declare mobilization and try to attack again from several directions. This was in a military analyst Ivan Sichen’s comment to Gazeta.ua.
“The Russians are concentrating all their efforts on encircling our troops in the Donbas. However, there are not enough forces for this. The occupiers are trying to advance from the ORDLO, while on other directions they are only shelling and cannot advance. There is a powerful Russian group in the Izyum direction, but our troops have stopped it”, says Sichen.
The Russians are now trying to attack in two directions on the Donbas, explains the analyst.
“From Izyum towards Slovyansk, in order to strike from the northern flank. And in the direction of Barvinkove in Kharkiv region so as to block our possible counterattack and distract our forces. And thus, to create an encirclement. But they are not able to do that yet”, says Sichen.
The occupiers are preparing for the third stage of the war, the analyst explains.
“The first stage was the offensive in the North of Ukraine. It failed. The second stage is still ongoing. This is an attempt to surround our troops in the Donbas and take full control of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. And then, if possible, to continue the offensive. This stage also failed. Now we are waiting for the third stage – possible declaring war and mobilization. To try again to make a large-scale offensive. But they have little chance of that. If they start mobilization on May 9, they need a month and a half to gather the troops. We are preparing for this. Many powerful weapons are being brought to Ukraine”, Sichen stresses.
The Russians are trying to disrupt the railway connection in order to cut arms supplies to Ukraine, the analyst explains.
“But this is difficult. Because the railway network is highly developed. It is impossible to destroy it completely. During World War II, there was much larger-scale fighting, but still no one was able to disrupt the rail network. It can now be restored within an hour to several days. The Russians will not be able to disrupt our weapons logistics”, Sichen adds.
Author: Anastasiia Prokaieva
Source: Gazeta.ua
The article is available in Russian
